In the 2004 disaster blockbuster Jack Hall played by Dennis Quaid says to the United Nations:

“The Northern Hemisphere owes its temperate climate to the North Atlantic Current. Heat from the Sun arrives at the equator and is carried north by the ocean. But global warming is melting the polar ice caps and disrupting this flow. Eventually, it will shut down, and when that occurs, there goes our climate.”

21 years ago, the movie was widely criticized by scientists for being scientifically inaccurate. They called it a fear-mongering, panic-triggering Hollywood exaggeration. Let’s see if they were right.

The climate of the Northern Hemisphere is indeed relying on the North Atlantic Current, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is the extension of the Gulf Stream, the “heat pump” which brings relatively mild weather to Europe and North America. So Jack was right about that one.

Scientists also agree that its slowing or shutting down would lead to considerable cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and warming and drought in the Southern Hemisphere and would make coastal areas unlivable. So Jack was right about that too. 

Now here comes the tricky part: when will that happen, if it happens at all? Jack said that it could happen any day in the movie. Scientists have long warned us that this could eventually happen if we continue to do nothing about pollution, but the estimated timelines were measured in centuries. Now let’s fast forward to 2021, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested that AMOC is unlikely to collapse within the 21st century. 

Don’t pop the champagne yet! Two years ago, the Niels Bohr Institute and the Institute of Mathematical Sciences of the University of Copenhagen published their study in the journal Nature Communications based on the data of ocean surface temperatures near Greenland over a period of 150 years. Their model predicts, with 95% certainty, that AMOC will collapse sometime between 2025 and 2095, with the most probable timeframe being in the mid-century. Last October, 42 climate scientists sent an open letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers, warning them about the potential collapse of the AMOC and urging them to act quickly to avoid disastrous consequences to all life on Earth.

So here we are in the present, burning the daytime and midnight oil and drilling for more. Increasing our carbon footprint and ignoring Jack Hall’s warning, who – at the end of the day – was right. It took us more than 20 years to come to the same conclusion as a Hollywood blockbuster. Does anyone feel stupid? Well, I do.

And now you can pop that champagne if you are still in the mood or rather bring out the popcorn and let’s watch how the movie plot of life on Earth unfolds. Let’s bet if Balazs will be able to go to the French riviera in a couple of years or it will be totally underwater and the remains will be a big ski resort! My bet is always on life and humanity, so you better spit out that popcorn and start doing something about it!